EU LCS Week 3 Day 1

EU LCS Week 3 Day 1 Optimal Lineup

Scoring: Draftkings(3 PPK, 2 PPA, -1 PPD, .02 PPCS)

Top: sOAZ(16.20): This pick seems out of place as he averages only 15.40.  I chose sOAZ because he has gone against 3 very good top laners on semi top centric teams in Cabo, Gamsu and Odoamne.  The one weaker team he played with a less talented top laner was Vizi on UoL and went off for 28.12.  We know ORG is willing to let sOAZ carry and ROC gives up on average
24.33 Fpts to opposing top laners which is the second worse in the EU LCS.  At onlu 5,700 I think sOAZ is worth ignoring his personal performance in light of his tough schedule and soft match up against ROCCAT.

Jungle: Spirit(21.09): Currently the second highest projected jungler only under Trick who I would expect to under perform as he has had a soft schedule and only put up 10.38 against the first
upper tier team he played.  That being said Spirit is my favorite jungler this week at a reasonable price of 6,500.  He doesn’t have great consistency(CV=.68) but I don’t see a game script in which Spirit isn’t a heavy part of a win that I believe Fnatic will get.

 Eika(25.19): High average, but also high CV Eika is a value buy with the expectation that UoL with a new jungler will falter.  I expect this game to be pretty bloody with Elements coming out on top.  UoL allows mid laners to perform slightly better than their average and gives up on average just under 20 points a game to opposing mid laners.  I expect this to be slightly inflated as UoL should struggle a little without Diamond in the jungle.  Eika is not a core pick for this lineup but more of a medium risk(low salary) with pretty high reward(high fpts ceiling).

ADC:  Zven(24.82): Origen struggled at the beginning of the season but it was against a very hard schedule.  I expect another game trending upward going against ROCCAT.  Zven is very talented with a pretty good CV(.46) going against a ROCCAT team that actually allows opposing ADCs to score 8.88% higher than their normal score.  Zven is my favorite ADC this week.

 Sprattel(21.24): Highest projected and best value support this week.  Has a good average going against a weak team who lost his jungler and is only 4,900.  Sprattel has to put up very little points to be worth it and I think he’ll out perform that mark.

Flex: Forgiven(28.51):  With the Draftkings scoring at .02 per creep score Forgiven is an amazing pick because we all know how incredible he is at farming.  Even without his crazy CS skills he has an insanely high average at 28.90 and a CV of only .26, he is a trustworthy and extremely talented ADC.  His match up isn’t great but even if Vitality holds him below his average he will still be in the upper 20’s.
Flex: MrRallez(28.86): Same reason I picked Eika and sprattel, he’s facing a team with a new jungler and has a high ceiling this week.  His consistency is pretty good and he has a high average.  We’ve seen him thrive in wins and I expect Elements to win this week.

Origen:  I always try to find the cheapest team with a high chance of winning, Origen is exactly that this week.  Unless you feel confident you can pick who wins between Splyce and Giants I think Origen is the only team that fits this roster salary wise.